Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 120.612186 138.969281 159.881188 185.614421 216.629444 253.058511 299.459077
2025-12-07 96.935768 119.897408 148.485779 187.217263 239.136006 307.522460 406.461289
2025-12-14 83.425427 108.629621 142.131878 190.961765 262.118982 365.019637 530.935989
2025-12-21 72.872313 98.701384 134.821838 190.615767 277.655520 413.804943 655.104737
2025-12-28 68.173170 95.760477 136.212191 202.253506 312.363573 498.708762 863.041400
2026-01-04 63.733114 92.357083 136.083303 211.037051 343.713660 585.187725 1103.766180
2026-01-11 59.642882 88.819470 135.030462 217.786919 372.524343 674.029478 1383.198561
2026-01-18 55.529298 84.665826 132.289025 220.937685 395.066887 756.332957 1682.729692
2026-01-25 51.495813 80.138734 128.260539 220.957445 411.293029 829.607170 1993.616486
2026-02-01 47.240453 74.771856 122.097380 215.926510 416.019769 878.378241 2262.397411
2026-02-08 43.464916 69.847952 116.144388 210.371953 418.444198 922.337831 2540.225550
2026-02-15 40.227726 65.558848 110.868633 205.381722 421.096057 967.637052 2848.112742
2026-02-22 39.498492 65.747074 114.081822 218.777561 470.343544 1155.109671 3793.952620
2026-03-01 37.495182 63.423275 112.239065 221.102669 493.461478 1278.745754 4604.257941
2026-03-08 35.933007 61.767793 111.507910 225.773605 523.820737 1436.895527 5722.370264
2026-03-15 34.011311 59.250493 108.757805 225.363618 540.520484 1558.249174 6797.473916
2026-03-22 33.607628 59.627450 111.991705 239.684086 602.558768 1866.902162 9344.250987
2026-03-29 32.883993 59.296647 113.680661 250.517509 657.680237 2181.374804 12512.744290
2026-04-05 31.989696 58.535592 114.341951 258.857398 707.717635 2506.048749 16487.721522
2026-04-12 30.824175 57.113746 113.376562 262.754737 744.544682 2796.789150 20942.222393
2026-04-19 29.479148 55.207282 111.115390 262.779195 768.299585 3042.285228 25696.353682
2026-04-26 27.831685 52.537940 106.841659 256.557528 768.219643 3168.847784 29483.340239
2026-05-03 26.271704 49.951743 102.542482 249.696631 764.322273 3275.732791 33461.194864